Latest Indiana Survey results
Indiana might get a little crazy in the lead up to the 2024 election. Incumbent Governor Eric Holcomb (R) is term-limited so there will be a competitive Republican primary to replace him. U.S. Senator Mike Braun will be one of the Republicans running for governor so there will also be an open U.S. Senate seat; several House members have indicated interest in one or both of these jobs so there will likely be open House seats too.
As possible candidates “make their decision with family and friends over the holidays,” we wanted to assess where a potential field would start. We interviewed 1,000 voters statewide so we would have an ample Republican sub-sample which we do (n=457). It’s early and we don’t know for sure who all the candidates will be, so we opted to be inclusive. In fact, we asked the GOP primary ballot for U.S. Senate twice - once with a field of candidates that did not include former Purdue president/Governor Mitch Daniels and once with a field that did. It made a big difference.
In the gubernatorial contest, U.S. Senator Mike Braun starts ahead although nearly half of likely Republican primary voters say they are currently undecided (40%) or would like (9%) someone other than the candidates we tested.
In the presidential contest, Donald Trump’s image has taken a hit with Republicans recently. More than a third of Republicans in the state say they are less favorable toward him - including 56% of seniors! Even so, Trump leads the Republican primary ballot - for now - ahead of Hoosier Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump’s support is driven by non-college educated Republicans. Among those with a college degree, DeSantis leads.
We asked all 1,000 voters we interviewed what they thought the top priority for the Indiana state legislature should be in 2023. Very clearly - it is not more restrictions on abortion. The top choice was to lower health care costs, followed by increasing housing options and affordability.
Indiana is one of 18 states that has never elected a woman governor. Previously, only one woman has run and that is Democrat Jill Long who ran in 2008 against incumbent Governor Mitch Daniels in a race that he won decisively. Both Lt. Governor Suzanne Crouch and U.S. Senator Mike Braun announced their candidacies on December 12th. Fort Wayne businessman Eric Doden announced in 2021. Attorney General Todd Rokita and retiring Rep Trey Hollingsworth (IN-9) may or may not run for governor, while other candidates may still announce.
In the U.S. Senate race, Rep Victoria Spartz (IN-5) has expressed interest and said she would make her decision known in January or February. Rep Jim Banks (IN-3) is said to be “strongly considering” a run and Rep Trey Hollingsworth and Attorney General Todd Rokita have also been mentioned as possible candidates. One person who has people talking, but has not publicly expressed interest is former governor and Purdue president Mitch Daniels. Our survey shows he has a strong reservoir of support among Republicans should he decide to run.